NOAA increases risk of ‘above-normal’ hurricane season

By on August 8, 2019


NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center located in College Park, Md., has issued its updated outlook for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. The likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is now to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May).

The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA now expecting 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-4 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.

Visit NOAA for more information.

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We will, as always, weather the storm, as we stick together at the OBX; I am sad to hear about reading the post of the end of Sentinel paper. I guess this old mermaid will have to find someone else who wants to hear my comments. Much love to you all.


All are best guesses with guess being the operative word. If you put out enough forecasts you will eventually get it right. After revising downward for a few years it was time to move the opposite direction.


Colorado State predicts near-normal. They are usually much more accurate than NOAA. But as Colorado State says in their latest bulletin (8/5), “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season” for someone in the path.


This is surprising. It’s been very very below normal in Atlantic this year. They must think September/October is going to be active. Or they name some storms that don’t deserve names again. One or the other. It only takes one bad one to make a season though.


Yes, September is the most active. And the weather is better too.


This is good news for many on the east coast. Swell and surf! There are some good things that come from these creative and necessary forces known as hurricanes.