More than a dozen hurricanes are possible

Most of the ingredients are moving into place for a hurricane season that is likely to be well above average, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Thursday.

Conditions are expected to be essentially the opposite of what they were last year, when storm activity was relatively low, NOAA says.

With hurricane season starting Tuesday, NOAA says, sea surface temperatures are as much as four degrees above normal, trade winds will be light and upper-level winds that tend to tear storms apart are expected to diminish significantly.

NOAA reports that under these conditions, there is a 70 percent chance of 14 to 23 named storms, eight to 15 hurricanes and three to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Category 3 hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 115 mph or more.

The norm, NOAA says, is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said in a statement. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

Because the paths of storms are dependent on short-term factors such as interaction with other systems and steering patterns, NOAA does not forecast possibilities of landfall.

NOAA said sea surface temperatures are at record levels east of the Caribbean islands and could continue to be well above normal during the height of the season in August and September, providing fuel for hurricanes to form and intensify. An easterly jet stream is also favorable for the powerful Cape Verde storms that form off the coast of Africa, NOAA reported.

Adding to the probability of a busy season is that the climate is in a period conducive to hurricanes.

El Nino conditions in the Pacific contributed to the higher upper level winds that diminished activity last year. NOAA is seeing signs of neutral or El Nina conditions, which produce the opposite effect.

A period of high activity has been in place since 1995, NOAA reported. Seasons from 1995 to 2009 have averaged about 14.5 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

Ten of the fifteen seasons since 1995 have been considered above normal, and five seasons 1995 have not been above normal. They include the El Nino years of 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009 and the 2007 season.

click here for a more detailed analysis »

GO TO HOME PAGE »

---